GSMC 2026: Statecraft, Tariffs and a K‑Shaped Economy Set the Macro Stage for 2026

Christian Lawrence, head of cross-asset macro strategy at Rabobank, said 2026 will be shaped by intersecting “regimes” across geopolitics, the economy and markets, with inflation staying close to 3%, growth near trend, cautious Fed easing, and continued use of tariffs and industrial policy as strategic tools. “We are going through some fundamental regime shifts,” Lawrence told GSMC 2026 attendees, citing statecraft, a K‑shaped economy, and “volatility suppression” in markets as the key frames for the year ahead...

Canada and China Reach Deal to Remove Tariffs on Lobster, Snow Crab by March 1, 2026

Canada and China have reached an initial trade agreement that will eliminate tariffs on Canadian lobster, snow crab, and select agri-food products. The agreement, announced January 16, sets a target of March 1 for China to remove retaliatory duties, reinstating market access after a steep 25% tariff hindered Canadian seafood exports.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the deal would remove trade barriers and “unlock billions of dollars in business for Canadian farmers, fish harvesters, and workers across agri-food sectors...

Winding Glass: Trump Policies of Tariff and Weak Dollar Damaged Seafood in 2025, Likely to Continue 

Tariffs and a weak dollar created artificial seafood supply shortages in the US in 2025. The result: higher prices for consumers, reduced consumption, and a reorientation of global trade flows away from America.

Supply is the ultimate driver of seafood pricing, as any boat captain landing in New Bedford, Gloucester or Maine will tell you. On days with more boats, prices are down.

The same dynamic holds at the stock level. When a population expands or contracts, it changes the...

US Seafood Industry Calls to Protect USMCA Duty-Free Trade Framework

The National Fisheries Institute (NFI)’s Director of Public Policy, Morgan Bell, delivered testimony before the US International Trade Commission this week, underscoring the essential role of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) in supporting a thriving North American seafood trade.

Speaking on behalf of the entire commercial seafood value chain — from harvesters and processors to distributors and retailers — Bell highlighted the remarkable growth in seafood exports under the USMCA since its 2019 implementation. American seafood exports to Mexico have surged 65%...

Florida Importer Netuno Sues Over Trump Tariffs, Challenges Emergency Trade Powers

Netuno USA, a Florida-based seafood importer and distributor, filed suit Nov. 5 in the US Court of International Trade, arguing that President Trump’s emergency tariff program exceeds his statutory authority and has disrupted its seafood supply chains.

The complaint was lodged against Trump, his administration, the US Trade Representative, US Customs and Border Protection and other officials. Netuno called the tariffs unconstitutional and unlawful and argued that Trump exceeded statutory and constitutional authority by using emergency powers to impose broad tariffs.

Netuno questioned Trump’s authority on tariffs...

US-China Tariff Cut Gives Short-Term Relief to Seafood Imports

The US and China reached a trade agreement that reduces a key tariff on Chinese goods and extends several reciprocal exclusions, providing immediate — albeit temporary — relief to US seafood importers and processors, who have been squeezed by higher duties.

Under the agreement, the so-called fentanyl tariff is reduced from 20% to 10%, and reciprocal tariff exclusions are extended through December 31, 2025. Separately, certain Section 301 exclusions that had been set to expire at the end of November 2025 were pushed out...

US Share of Norwegian Salmon Slips as Tariffs Push Growth Toward Asia in 2025

The United States has become a smaller share of the Norwegian salmon market in recent months as tariffs play a significant role in the market shift.

In its monthly Norwegian seafood export update, the Norwegian Seafood Council said that salmon export growth to the US has slowed down in recent months. Over the last three months, only 8% of Norwegian salmon exports were destined for the us. That number was as high as 11.5% in the first quarter of 2025. Despite this, the US remains among...

Norwegian Exports Climb in September as China Buoys Salmon Demand, US Fresh Sales Slip

Norwegian seafood exports posted robust numbers in September, buoyed by both rising prices and strong demand, particularly for salmon shipped to China, according to the latest figures from the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council, credited higher prices for mackerel, cod, saithe and king crab to go along with the strong growth in the Chinese market.

"The EU is still our largest overall market, but Norway is now taking an increasing share of the growing Chinese salmon and prawn market...

Canada Expands Tariff Support to Atlantic Canada, Backing Seafood, Manufacturing and Steel

As Canada continues to navigate a new trade environment thanks to United States President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced major investments for Atlantic Canada.

On September 8, Carney announced that CAD 80 million ($58 million) from the larger Regional Tariff Response Initiative (RTRI) would be allocated to businesses in Atlantic Canada. Carney’s office stated that RTRI support will help industries most affected by the tariffs, including the seafood, manufacturing and steel sectors. The support will aim to modernize their operations, protect...

Kingfish Sees 41% Volume Surge in H1 2025, But Scales Back US Fresh Sales Over Tariffs

The Kingfish Company said it witnessed strong volume growth of its farmed Yellowtail products behind rising demand in the first half of 2025.

The company also stated that it would reduce its commercial activities for fresh yellowtail kingfish in the US, citing tariffs, an unfavorable USD exchange rate, and increased logistics costs. The company noted the decision despite witnessing strong volume growth in the US over the past few quarters. Fresh sales in the US represented roughly 6% of its total Fresh revenue...

USTR Extends China Section 301 Tariff Exclusions Through November 29

On Thursday, August 28, 2025, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced the extension of tariff exclusions in the Section 301 Investigation of China's Acts, Policies, and Practices. The list of exclusions includes various seafood items, such as frozen haddock and sole, as well as frozen blocks of crab meat, which includes king, snow, and Dungeness crab.

The exemptions, which were to expire on August 31, will now expire on November 29, 2025. This is the second time this year that the exemptions have been extended...

The Retail Rundown: Retailers See Early Back-to-School Spending Amid Price Concerns

While some students are already back in class, others are squeezing in the last stretch of summer before Labor Day. Either way, grocers are bracing for busy aisles as parents juggle back-to-school supplies and grocery lists. This week’s ads highlight plenty of lunchbox staples, including snacks and deli items. 

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that two-thirds of shoppers had already begun back-to-school purchases by early July, with more than half starting earlier than last year. Concerns about higher prices linked to tariffs...

Ecuador’s Shrimp Sector Still Facing $20 Million Monthly Tariff Burden Even with Rate Advantage

Even with the lowest US tariff rate among leading shrimp importers, Ecuador’s shrimp industry faces a hefty $20 million monthly tariff cost, posing serious challenges for the sector, according to the country’s National Chamber of Aquaculture (CNA).

Ecuador was the second-largest supplier of shrimp to the US, exporting 412 million pounds worth $1.28 billion, per the CNA. Between January and June 2025, the country shipped 296 million pounds of product valued at $867 million...

Thai Union Sees Record Margin Gains, Will Leverage Global Footprint Amid 19% US Tariff

Thai Union Group announced its gross profit margin (GPM) reached an all-time quarterly high of 19.7% in Q2, along with a record for the first half of the year at 19.3%.

The company said its results reflected “exceptional resilience and continued growth in profitability” via the record-high GPM, as its earnings per share saw an 18% growth.

The GPM record was linked to a favorable product mix and raw material costs.

The group posted Q2 2025 sales...

Indian Seafood Producer Applauds UK Trade Pact, Foresees Export Surge for Shrimp

Indian seafood firm Kings Infra applauded the recent trade deal between India and the United Kingdom as it will lead to duty-free access for India’s seafood exports to the UK.

The company said the move will benefit exporters and boost trade volumes. Kings Infra pointed out that frozen fish ands shrimp products, processed seafood and fishmeal and fish-based ingredients will all benefit from the increased market access to the UK.

“This FTA is a landmark moment for Indian aquaculture. Duty-free access...

Norwegian Seafood Council Flags US Tariffs Impact, Highlights China and Salmon as Growth Drivers

The Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) reported that US tariffs weighed on seafood exports in the second half of 2025 but emphasized that the United States remains a vital market with strong growth potential for Norwegian seafood.

“The USA's new tariffs created a lot of noise and turmoil for Norwegian seafood exports. From being a market with record growth and an almost insatiable appetite for salmon and crab from Norway in the first half of 2025, US trade throughout the year was characterized by tariffs...

2025: A Pivotal Year Reordering Global Seafood Trade and Policy

The year 2025 marked a watershed in seafood trade and policy with transformative impacts felt across international supply chains, domestic regulations, and industry competitiveness. At the center was President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff regime, reshaping sourcing and pricing dynamics from shrimp to crab, while high-profile regulatory actions, from the FDA's radioactive shrimp recalls to NOAA’s Marine Mammal Protection Act import bans, reverberated through global markets. Domestically, the Trump administration launched bold initiatives, including an executive order to cut regulatory burdens and a strategic roundtable...

Invasive Species and US Tariffs Add Pressure to Brazil’s Seafood Sector

Brazil’s tilapia sector is navigating another challenge after the National Biodiversity Commission (Conabio) labeled the fish species invasive. Meanwhile, US tariffs on Brazilian seafood, including tilapia, continue to squeeze export margins, compounding uncertainties for producers.

Tilapia is a cornerstone of Brazilian aquaculture, representing a significant share of the country’s farmed fish production. However, Conabio’s recent decision to classify tilapia as an invasive species has ignited alarm among producers and government bodies. The classification signals stricter controls and potential regulatory hurdles, threatening to disrupt one of Brazil’s most vital...

NFI Supports Food Tariff Cuts, Presses for Inclusion of All Seafood in Trump Administration Plan

The National Fisheries Institute (NFI) shared its approval of the Trump administration’s move to reduce tariffs on some food and agricultural products.

The NFI urged the administration to include all seafood in tariff adjustments, citing that rising costs have put it out of reach for many American families.

“This is critical to lowering consumer prices, maintaining American jobs in the seafood sector and keeping Americans healthy and fed,” NFI President & CEO Lisa Wallenda Picard said in a statement...

High Liner Q3 Adjusted EBITDA Falls 29% as Tariffs, Foodservice Softness Squeeze Margins

Value-added frozen seafood company High Liner Foods reported an Adjusted EBITDA decline in the third quarter of 2025, when compared to last year.

High Liner’s President and CEO Paul Jewer said the company faced “a combination of macroeconomic factors” which included tariffs, soft consumer sentiment and reduced foodservice traffic that led to “greater pressure on margins and volumes than anticipated.”

"We are taking targeted actions - including pricing adjustments, continuous improvement initiatives, and disciplined cost management - to help offset short-term pressures on the business,” Jewer added...

Indonesia Orders Shrimp Firms to Halt Shipments Amid FDA's New Import Certification Rules

The Indonesian government has issued a formal notice instructing shrimp packers in affected areas to halt shipments to the United States, a move prompted by multiple US detections of cesium‑137 (Cs‑137) and coming as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)’s new import certification requirements and Import Alert 99-52 take effect.

Market sources confirmed the notice to Expana, with suppliers from the Island of Java and Province of Lampung, on the Island of Sumatra, impacted. Sources indicated that multiple suppliers in the affected...

Oregon Pink Shrimp Allies Tell USTR to Open UK Market, End 20% Tariff

The Oregon Trawl Commission (OTC), the Shrimp Producers Marketing Cooperative (SPMC) and the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) penned a letter to the US Trade Representative (USTR), urging the Trump administration to secure reliable access to the United Kingdom market for Oregon pink shrimp harvesters.

“The UK is one of the major global markets for coldwater shrimp, and UK consumers place great value on quality and sustainability, making it an ideal market for the MSC-certified Oregon pink shrimp...

SalmonChile Represented in Chilean Capitol Hill Delegation to Advance Trade Talks

SalmonChile, a Chilean salmon industry association, visited Capitol Hill in the United States to discuss trade relations, tariffs, and other issues with US representatives.

The Chilean delegation was led by the Industrial Development Association (SOFOFA), and its president, Rosario Navarro, and its secretary general, Rodrigo Yáñez. The group met with the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), where parties discussed the negotiation of a free trade agreement and the current tariff status. The delegation was also received at a reception by the Chilean ambassador to Washington...

Global Seafood Faces "Perfect Storm" of Tariffs and Risk, Rabobank Warns

The global seafood industry is amidst a period of profound disruption, according to the latest Rabobank report.

Seafood producers and exporters are being impacted by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, notably in Asia. Meanwhile, consumers in the Western part of the globe are facing increased prices and reduced availability of seafood staples.

“The seafood industry is navigating a perfect storm of trade barriers, geopolitical risk, and supply chain fragility,” said Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Global Specialist Seafood at RaboResearch. “Strategic diversification—both in sourcing and market access—is no longer optional...

New US-EU Trade Agreement Removes Tariffs on US Seafood, Lobster

The United States and European Union unveiled a new trade agreement on August 21 that will eliminate EU tariffs on US industrial goods, including seafood, and expand market access for American seafood, agriculture and lobster products.

The deal will see the European Union eliminate all tariffs on US industrial goods and provide “preferential” market access to a “wide range” of US Seafood and agricultural goods. The statement also said the framework included an extension of a deal, which expired on July 31, that eliminated EU tariffs on US...

Scottish Salmon Exports on Track to Hit Record £1 Billion on Strong US, Asian Growth

Scottish salmon exports could reach the £1 billion ($1.4 billion) mark for the first time ever by the end of the year, according to Salmon Scotland.

Salmon Scotland noted that the latest data shows that salmon exports rose by 33% to £941 million in the rolling 12 months through June.

The group, which represents the farmed salmon sector in Scotland, said the data comes just as the country will be able to tap into the Indian market following...

Trump’s New 50% Tariff on India Threatens Shrimp Exports to the US

India, the United States' top shrimp supplier, now faces a 50% tariff.

President Donald Trump levied an additional 25% tariff on India, just days after he imposed a 25% tariff on the country, as Expana reported.

“I find that the Government of India is currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil,” Trump said in an August 6 executive order.

The move serves as a penalty on India for purchasing Russian oil. It is now one of the highest rates of all US trading partners...

The Winding Glass: $1 Billion Tariff Hit to Shrimp Industry Will Lead to Downturn in 12 Months

The US has finalized, for now, tariff rates on the major shrimp-importing countries, and the industry is preparing for a period of significantly higher costs. 

In this column, we look back at other periods when shrimp prices rapidly rose 20% or more to predict what the longer-term impact will be on our industry and customers. 

Things don’t look good.  

We calculated tariff impacts by using full year 2024 values for the major types of shrimp imports, shell-on...