ANALYSIS: Canadian Snow Crab Prices Begin Rebound

The Canadian snow crab market in the U.S. looks to have bounced off its 52-week lows which were seen mid-August. The past four to five weeks has seen both the Newfoundland and Gulf 5-8 and 8-up market rebound from those lows. Each has trended higher since mid-August, up 3.3 percent and 5.3 percent respectively. Market activity is reported to be improved from where things sat several weeks ago.

With that being said, individual inventory positions continue to look to vary greatly in...

This Week in Retail: Seasonal Trends Start to Shift 

Farewell, summer. Today is the first day of fall and seasonal retail trends are beginning to shift as grocers increasingly showcase autumn favorites like roasts and finger foods for football fans. 

However, temperatures in many parts of the nation have yet to cool off substantially. This could stretch the grilling season for a little longer. As milder weather starts to settle in for the long run, more households may opt to cook indoors and up their oven usage.

Beef roasts have increased in feature volume and currently claim 27.4% of total beef ads. This compares to 22% of beef ads two weeks ago. Steaks still hold the majority of beef feature volume, followed by ground beef...

This Week in Retail: Seasonal Transition for the Meat Case

With Labor Day now behind us, retailers are preparing for the transition from summer staples to fall favorites.

Tailgaiting items like burgers and ribs are being featured in time for the National Football League season, which kicks off today! This could support sales at the meat case as consumers gather to cheer on their teams while chowing down on finger foods. 

A game-time staple, chicken wings are on feature for $2.97 per pound, down 2 cents from a year ago. Wholesale wing prices have gained nearly 7 percent so far this year but are currently well below last year’s record highs, providing the opportunity for retailers and foodservice to showcase attractive promotions. However, boneless breasts have mostly been at record highs so far this year—unwelcome news for boneless wing lovers...

This Week in Retail: Gearing Up for the Last Major Retail Event of Summer

Grocers are gearing up for the last major retail buying occasion of the season—Labor Day weekend. The upcoming holiday signals the “unofficial end” of summer and retailers are making the final push for grilling items.

In the wholesale beef market, Urner Barry’s Choice beef cutout has been largely sideways since mid-May. At present, the cutout is down about 23% from last year's level, which was a seasonal all-time high.

However, the cutout remains at the second highest level in history for this time of year. This has made it difficult for grocers to procure inventory for holiday promotions at lower prices...

This Week in Retail: Beef Features Increase Ahead of Labor Day

It may be hard to believe, but Labor Day weekend is just over two weeks away.

Grocers have already completed the bulk of their purchases for the last major grilling occasion of the summer season. 

The meat case could perform well over the holiday with several popular grilling items featured at lower price points compared to last year. Ground beef is likely to grab a large share of circular space as households fire up the grill with burgers and more...

This Week in Retail: Reviewing the Chicken Complex; CPI Update

This week in retail, we’ll take a deeper dive into the retail chicken landscape ahead of the approaching NFL season, which officially kicks off in four weeks.

Chicken currently ranks fourth in protein buying opportunities with 16.4%. Seafood, beef, and pork hold the top three spots, respectively.

Urner Barry’s Weekly Retail Feature Chicken Index is $2.96 per pound this week, up 10% from the 5-year average of $2.69 per pound. 

Within the chicken complex, boneless skinless breasts hold the most ad volume at 42.5%. Drumsticks are the next highest featured item with 15.5% of total chicken ads...

ANALYSIS: June Shrimp Imports Edge Higher

June U.S. shrimp imports were released today and showed a slight gain compared to last year. The 169.422 million pounds were up 0.8 percent compared to June 2021, and while it was only marginally higher, it restored the import market back on trend. This reversed the surprise of lower shrimp imports in May.

The slower pace of gains continues to shrink the early year outsized gains, with year-to-date imports up 9.2 percent to nearly 1 billion pounds (968.329 million pounds). Nearly all our top 10 trade partners...

ANALYSIS: Pangasius Imports Break Records as Prices Plummet

Imports of pangasius frozen fillets increased 16 percent into May 2022, registering just over 33.1 million pounds. This is the highest May figure on record as well as the highest monthly total since July 2017 brought in 34.9 million pounds.  Import volumes remain 32.1 percent higher on a January through May year-to-date basis, reporting 132.5 million pounds. This is the highest year-to-date total on record for this timeframe.  Imports have remained higher than the previous three-year average for the entirety of 2022...

ANALYSIS: Farmed Salmon Index Dips Below 2021

The farmed salmon complex has now dipped below 2021 levels, down 4 percent from the same time period last year. 2022 levels remain much higher than the 5-year average, up 24 percent.

Currently the farmed salmon complex is seeing the West Coast Canadian smaller whole fish market adjust lower sharply. Smaller-to-mid-sized fish have been trending lower the last three to four weeks. FOB Seattle 8-10s is currently down 36.7 percent from the same time period last year and...

This Week in Retail: Extreme Heat and its Impact on Protein Demand

This week in retail, we'll take a look at the widespread heat across most of the country and its impact on protein demand. 

With excessive heat warnings currently in effect for more than 100 million people, consumers will be less likely to cook. This could potentially reduce retail meat sales, which normally slow around this time of year due to seasonal factors including a lack of major holidays following Independence Day until Labor Day. 

While the extreme weather could have a negative near-term impact on meat sales, demand for pork and beef appears to be outperforming seasonal expectations...

While the extreme weather could have a negative near-term impact on meat sales, demand for pork and beef appears to be outperforming seasonal expectations...

This Week in Retail: Consumer Spending in Question as Inflation Heats Up

Summer is heating up and so is inflation—clouding the outlook for consumer spending on food, travel, and beyond. 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation climbed to 9.1% in June, more than what economists had anticipated. The latest figure was a nearly 41-year high and what some analysts considered to be a peak.

Increases in food and gasoline prices contributed to the relentless surge in inflation, which has elevated the cost of living and forced some households to reconfigure their spending habits...

ANALYSIS: May Shrimp Imports Decline for the First Time Since September 2021

With the release of May U.S. shrimp imports today, data showed a decline from the previous year for the first time since September 2021 and only the second time since late 2020. 165.154 million pounds was sent to the U.S., down 6.7 percent from last year.

Year-to-date figures have now narrowed to 11.1 percent above last year. This was primarily driven by a large decline from India, our number one trade partner. This may also be the reason that...

ANALYSIS: Snow Crab Season Begins to Wrap Up Around Canada

The Canadian snow crab market saw its first week since mid-April where pricing did not fall on 5-8s. 8s and 10s were steady this week as well. The fishing season is beginning to wrap up around Canada for most areas for snow crab; the Gulf is 97 percent caught and Newfoundland is 89 percent caught as of July 1, with landings through June 29 (Newfoundland) and June 30th (Gulf).  

As we look at pricing, 5-8s out of both regions are well...

ANALYSIS: Farmed Salmon Update Heading Into July

The farmed salmon complex has seen the index adjust lower over the past seven weeks as the summer doldrums look to have hit the market. However, the farmed salmon index is currently 34.8 percent higher than the 5-year average as we head into the end of June inching closer to July.  

Looking at the Chilean fillet market specifically, the fresh fillet market did stabilize this week and the markets held unchanged throughout the week. Much of the stabilization is attributed to a slowdown...

ANALYSIS: Tilapia and Pangasius Under Downwards Pressure

As the second quarter of the year ends, tilapia and pangasius frozen fillets are both seeing downwards pricing pressure leading into the summer. While discounts on pangasius have steadily continued since the end of the first quarter due to backorders finally catching up, combined with consumer pushback to record premiums in the wake of inflation, tilapia remained firm with an active demand until recent.

Contributing to the discounts within the tilapia market includes ocean freight relaxing, the USD gaining strength against the RMB...

This Week in Retail: Competing Proteins for Father’s Day

Father’s Day, the second major grilling event of the season, is just 10 days away. Front-page circular ads are showcasing meat and poultry cuts along with other foods for the upcoming holiday weekend.

Grocers will be competing with foodservice for consumer dollars this holiday. According to the National Restaurant Association, Father’s Day is the third busiest day of the year for dining out, behind Mother’s Day and Valentine’s Day.

The most recent National Retail Federation data shows that consumers plan to spend $32.29 million on Father’s Day dinner or brunch this year, up slightly from last year’s figure...

This Week in Retail: Protein Indices Are Above 3-Year Average; CPI Data Released 

In the face of ongoing inflationary pressures along with animal disease issues impacting the protein industry, wholesale beef, pork, and poultry prices continue to reside at or challenge all-time highs. 

In the retail red meat complex, Urner Barry’s weekly retail feature beef index this week averages $6.34 per pound, down $1.02 per pound from a week ago but 6 cents per pound above the 3-year average.

The boxed beef market is currently moving mostly sideways but has dipped to 52-week lows in recent days. Despite this, Urner Barry's Choice and Select cutouts remain at near seasonal all-time highs, second or third to 2021 and 2014....

ANALYSIS: Blue Swimming Crab Meat Dips Below 2017 Levels

The blue swimming crab meat market continued to adjust lower this week and all sizes are at 52-week lows. Looking at jumbo lump, we notice that current pricing is 2 percent higher than the 5-year average; compare that to 14 percent higher only a month ago. When looking at pricing on a cyclical basis, current levels have now dipped below 2017 levels.

Heading into Labor Day, demand was reported to be dull by most, with some citing a more fair to moderate demand...

Crab meat headed into Norfolk up 54 percent

With crab meat imports at the highest levels seen in recent history, dating back to 2007, it is interesting to look at where the crab meat is going in the country. With challenges well documented on the West Coast, specifically into the port of L.A., it makes sense that we have seen a shift to ports away from that area. However, an area of growth that has been more dramatic has been the shift to Norfolk, VA. Norfolk year-to-date is almost on par with New York...

ANALYSIS: Canada Lobster Tail, Meat Exports to U.S. Fall Short in June

Lobster tail and meat import flow into the United States from Canada continues to lag the 2021 pace but is more in-line with the five-year average.

The in-shell category is down 34.7% in June and 35.1% YTD when compared to last year, but just 6% off the five-year pace.

The meat category is down 24.9% in June, and...

ANALYSIS: Blue Swimming Crab Meat Continues Decline Into August

The blue swimming crab meat market continued to adjust lower throughout the week as it has since the beginning of 2022. Current pricing on blue jumbo lump is 27.5 percent lower than the beginning of the year and 13.4 percent lower than the start of the summer season. Summer has from a historical standpoint always been the more active demand period for crab meat as many users flock to the seashore and enjoy crab cakes. But with inventories tough to build during the pandemic and pricing at...

This Week in Retail: Sizing Up August, Back to School Needs 

With August now in full swing, households are eager to enjoy the final weeks of summer.

Labor Day weekend, which marks the unofficial end of the summer season, is four weeks away while the NFL season officially kicks off shortly after on September 8.

In some states, kids are returning to school in less than two weeks. Circulars are proactively promoting back-to-school staples including snacks along with breakfast and sandwich items—giving a boost to lunch meat sales...

This Week in Retail: Wrapping Up July; Digesting the Latest GDP Data  

Wrapping up July, grocers are promoting fan-favorite grilling items like steaks, pork chops, and shrimp in an effort to encourage at-home cooking during the dog days of summer—a seasonally sluggish period for meat sales.

Seafood features make up nearly 33% of total protein ad volume this week, marking the fifth consecutive week that it has seized the top spot. Beef comes in second with 23%, closely followed by pork with 22%. Chicken claims 17.5% and eggs make up 1.3% of ad space, down from nearly 5% the week...

ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review

Sockeye continues its trajectory to easily meet and exceed harvest projections. The market is steady and remaining within listed levels. Some market participants feel that this pricing will continue to hold as long as supply remains steady with any carryover going directly to the freezers. As good as processing has been keeping up so far, one concern has been the availability of refrigerated containers. As of this writing it was not reported to be a widespread issue but more isolated instances. With harvests starting to ebb...

ANALYSIS: 5-8s at 5-Year Low; Buying Opps Up For Snow Crab

The Canadian snow crab market continued to adjust lower throughout this past week on all sizes. 5-8s adjusted down another 3.1 percent from last week and down just about 30 percent from the beginning of May 2022. Overall, market participants have reported that demand has seen some improvements as more buyers participate in buying crab this season, but many still report that movement is still nothing like it has been in past years.

Pricing is at 52-week lows and is now at...

ANALYSIS: Red Swimming Crab Meat Market Steadily Moving Lower

The red swimming crab meat market has been steadily moving lower, similar to the blue swimming crab meat market for most of the year. While not yet at 52-week lows like the blue swimming crab meat market, the red swimming crab meat market is down 14.2 percent on jumbo lump grade crab meat since the beginning of 2022.

As we observe the downward pricing pressure of the red swimming crab meat market, we notice that the pace is not as steep as...

This Week in Retail: Travel Season and Foodservice Demand

Following Independence Day, major retail buying occasions are few and far between until Labor Day. While the dog days of summer typically slow retail sales, they can spark interest in retail’s counterpart—foodservice.

The peak travel season, which is roughly from June through August, is usually beneficial for the restaurant sector. This summer, however, there are several variables at play that will influence travel plans, including high gas prices.

According to AAA, the national average for gas ticked lower to $4.80 a gallon, down eight cents over the past week. The downturn was mainly due to falling demand. While demand has softened, it could pick up again as more people plan vacations and hit the road this summer...

This Week in Retail: This Year's July Fourth Cookout Could be Costlier 

Consumers might sweat when shopping for July Fourth festivities since this year's cookout could be costlier than in years past.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation remains elevated at a multi-decade high with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising 14.2% over the last 12 months.

Despite higher retail prices and squeezed budgets, most households are forging ahead with their Independence Day plans. According to the National Retail Federation, 84% of consumers plan to celebrate the Fourth this year.

Of those, 59% of people plan to ring in Independence Day with a cookout...

This Week in Retail: Supermarkets Prep for July 4th

The Fourth of July marks the last major retail buying occasion of the summer until Labor Day. 

This year’s holiday falls on a Monday and the extended weekend could encourage consumer cookouts and gatherings.

Grocers are closely eyeing the forecast as record high temperatures persist in the Southern region of the nation this week. 

This week, beef claims almost 28% of total protein features this week. Seafood and pork each account for 22.2%, while chicken clocks in at 16.7%...

This Week in Retail: Seafood and Beef Lead Father's Day Ads

Feature ads for grilling favorites including steaks, chops, and ribs are abundant ahead of Father’s Day.

Seafood and beef lead Urner Barry's retail activity index this week, claiming 31.5% and 29.3% of ad space, respectively. Pork comes in with 23.6% of ad space and chicken features make up 9.3%. Egg features are up slightly from the week prior at 4.1%. 

Fresh/frozen filets make up the bulk of seafood ads at 30.5%. Cod is featured at $10.27 per pound on average, up 59% from last year. 4 oz. lobster tails run $29.58 per pound, up from $23.96 per pound in 2021...