This Week in Retail: Rising Feature Volume for Roasts

This month marks an ideal blend of seasons for the retail sector, as grilling cuts continue to be featured along with autumn favorites like hearty roasts and everything pumpkin. The shift to cooler weather is already being reflected in increased promotions for pork and beef roasts, which have earned a larger share of circular ad space this week. 

In the beef category, roasts now account for 26.4 percent of total ad space, up from 17 percent the previous week. Steak promotions eased to 36.9 percent, a nearly 10-point decline from...

The Retail Rundown: September's Seasonal Shifts

Although there are about two weeks left to enjoy summer, many consider the season unofficially over following Labor Day. The retail landscape is starting to reflect this shift, where factors like cooler weather and football season are already influencing consumer demand. 

The frozen/convenience aisles and deli counters benefit from back-to-school needs and provide quick meals for busy households. Circana data indicates that prepared dishes/kits earned $18.1 million in total sales last week, up from $17.7 million the week prior. Over in lunchmeat, fresh packaged turkey retailed at $7.21 discounted, an 18-cent year-over-year decrease.  

ANALYSIS: Fresh Whole Salmon Situation

The farmed salmon index has ticked up slightly through the month of August. Much of this can be attributed to the lack of whole fish in the U.S. market. West Coast Canadian whole fish have been unquoted since the beginning of August.

This has applied upward pricing pressure to the market in some areas; one of which appears to be Eastern Canadian whole fish. Pricing on 12–14-pound fish for example has ticked slightly higher during the month of August. Currently, the Canadian product is observing a premium over both...

ANALYSIS: Retail Salmon Promotions Up 5.2 Percent 

The Chilean fresh fillet market remained flat on 3-4s for the 4^th week in a row. In a marketplace that can at times be very volatile, the fresh Chilean fillet market has been relatively stable since the beginning of July, falling in total $0.15 over the course of a 7 week period.  

When looking at the 3-year average, the market is currently 7.6 percent lower, but on the 5-year average, the market is higher, up 4.5 percent.

Furthermore, when looking at the...

ANALYSIS: YTD (January-June) Frozen Tuna Imports Up 9.6%, with Strong Performance from Vietnam

Frozen tuna fillet imports for the first half of 2024 (YTD January-June) reached 39.38 million pounds, reflecting a 9.6% year-over-year increase. However, this figure is 8.91% below the 5-year YTD average. It's important to note that while total imports in 2023 totaled 81.23 million pounds (third highest record volume), this was following an all-time record-high import volume of 105.49 million pounds in 2022.

Historically, Indonesia has led the market share for imported frozen tuna fillets, and this...

ANALYSIS: Pangasius Imports Outweigh Tilapia

With U.S. import data reporting through June 2024, the first half of the year has recorded panagius outweighing tilapia in frozen fillet import volumes into the country. Historically tilapia largely outweighs pangasius, however, this trend reversal has become a more common occurrence as 2021 and 2022 also marked higher pangasius volumes for the same timeframe.

Contributing to the supply constraints on tilapia this year was a shortage of raw materials driven by unusual weather events that can increase mortality rates for smaller fish. Major producing areas of...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Shrimp Imports Drop Sharply in June

In data released Tuesday, U.S. shrimp imports fell sharply in June compared to last year with broad losses in nearly all our top trade partners. Imports for the month fell 14 percent to 117.241 million pounds, from 136.278 million pounds last year. The impact of negative y-o-y data was seen in all the top five: India (-14.8%), Ecuador (-20.2%), Indonesia (-8.9%), Vietnam (-8.5%), and Thailand (-14.0%).

There were also losses from Argentina (-6.6%) and Mexico (-45.8%). The only gainer in...

ANALYSIS: Scallop Market Rallies Ahead of Area II Closure

Framework Adjustment 38 to the Atlantic sea scallop Fishery Management Plan has resulted in an estimated harvest of 27.4 million pounds of Atlantic sea scallops for the new season that began April 1, 2024 — a 2.4 million pound increase from the previous year, marking the first quota increase since 2019.

Despite the anticipated increase in scallop supply, prices did soften soon after the season opened on April 1, 2024, with upwards pressure swiftly noted on U10s as landings dwindled on those larger sized scallops early in...

ANALYSIS: Salmon By-products And Its Role in Pet Food 

Walking down the pet food aisle, a theme that one would most likely observe is that it has grown. It not only appears to have grown but it is also getting increasingly more specific. Long are the days of buying basic kibble for your canine friend. More and more pet-owners are not only splurging on their pets but also paying closer attention to what they are feeding their companions.

Salmon has developed into a staple in the pet food aisle, along with many other...

ANALYSIS: Farmed Salmon Northeast Whole Fish Update

The farmed salmon whole fish market in the U.S. continues to be volatile with all origins oscillating. Post-Memorial Day weekend has seen the market move lower out of most origins. At current, Norway is down 31 percent from the 3-year average, Scotland is 35.8 percent lower than the 3-year average, and the Northeast Canadian 12–14-pound fish is also behind 15.4 percent from the 3-year average.

In looking at imported levels from the above origins, Canada is up significantly from year-to-date levels through May, up...

ANALYSIS: Diverging Trends in the Imported Crawfish Market

There have been two opposing storylines regarding imported crawfish in the United States this year, depending on the product form: whole cooked crawfish or tail meat. In 2024, tail meat prices have declined, while whole cooked products have firmed.

Tail meat prices from China and Spain has retreated for most of the year, reaching the lowest levels in the last five years. The average price for Chinese 100/150 ct. tail meat is about $6.50 per pound, which is 16% lower than the same point last year and...

ANALYSIS: Frozen Tuna Demand is Flat While Rising Freight Costs Loom

According to the latest U.S. Census import data, year-to-date (Jan-May) 2024 frozen tuna imports from all countries total 31 million pounds, marking a 6.1% increase compared to the same period last year and trending 6.31% higher than their 10-year year-to-date average of 29.1 million pounds. Import trends turned positive for the first time in March 2024, following a slowdown in 2023.

Indonesia leads in year-to-date (Jan-May) imports with 12.2 million pounds, marking a slight 0.2% increase...

ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review: Week 28, July 7-13

Sockeye pricing fell slightly this past week due to supply outpacing demand. Bristol Bay started slowly, but landings increased to levels similar to 2023 in week 27. However, week 28 experienced another decline, with 9.9 million fish landed, down 20.5 percent from last year's total of 12.5 million for the same week.

Copper River sockeye prices also retreated due to strong landings. In Week 22 of 2023, Copper River saw a catch of 265,000 fish. Week 27 the catch surpassed...

ANALYSIS: Uncertainties Within Cod, Haddock, Pollock Amid Geopolitical And Economic Factors

The U.S. wholesale market for groundfish is currently experiencing a complex and unsettled environment. Despite pricing remaining relatively steady, the undertone across the sector is highly unsettled, reflecting a range of economic and geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics. With upwards pressure on the market, including but not limited to supply challenges driven by Russian sanctions and reduced quotas, as well as rising replacement, freight, and cold storage costs and availability, sluggish demand within the U.S. has tempered the upwards pressure on wholesale prices during the height of summer...

The Retail Rundown: Dog Days Dull Buying Occasions

Holiday retail meat clearance last week was reported as mostly positive albeit a bit scattered due to varying weather conditions across the country. This week, extreme heat and record temperatures are expected to persist in the Western and Eastern U.S.

The sweltering conditions that typically accompany the dog days of summer make it challenging for retail to capture regular meat purchases. The egg case also typically sees fewer purchases around this time of year as consumers opt for cold breakfasts like cereal and fruit...

ANALYSIS: Farmed Salmon Import Update

Imports for May were released the week of the Fourth of July and there are several observations.

Farmed frozen salmon continues to month-to-month declines as May 2024 trails April 2024 by 6.9 percent. Overall, year-to-date, total frozen farmed salmon imports are 21.4 percent behind 2023. Through the first 5 months out of the year, 2024 is the lowest volume seen in the last three years. These lower frozen imports come after back-to-back record setting years for frozen farmed salmon...

ANALYSIS: Supply Constraints in Frozen Sockeye Salmon Spark Concerns

The frozen sockeye salmon market is currently facing significant challenges, primarily due to supply shortages and rising prices. Although Alaskan landings slightly exceeded preseason forecasts, they still fell short by 20% year-over-year, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G). Additionally, reduced landings have been reported in Canada and the Lower 48 states. Contributing factors include higher water temperatures limiting salmon runs in the Columbia River and landslides disrupting key areas around the Fraser River in Canada. Compounding these issues is the smallest...

The Retail Rundown: Leaping Towards Labor Day

Labor Day weekend, often viewed as the unofficial end of summer, is just two weeks out. Many families are seizing the opportunity for one last vacation, boosting foodservice spending.

For some students, summer break has already concluded, and back-to-school shopping for essentials like breakfast and lunch items is in full swing. Among retailers, Labor Day is recognized as the final major grilling event of the year, marking the last big push to promote barbecue favorites.

Last week, boneless skinless chicken breasts were featured at $4.43 discounted, 18 cents above...

The Retail Rundown: Multiple Factors Fuel Promotions; CPI Update

As we reach mid-August, grocery stores are transitioning their end caps from summer displays to game-day essentials, gearing up for the NFL regular season. At the same time, circulars are packed with barbecue items for the upcoming Labor Day weekend along with back-to-school essentials as some regions are already welcoming students back to class.

This week, seafood continues to dominate, representing about 28% of total protein volume in retail buying opportunities. Pork follows with a 23.4% share, while beef captures...

ANALYSIS: Crab Meat Imports Drop Over 25 Percent in June

After months of higher imports, June 2024 is down significantly for crab meat imports into the U.S. The month is down 31.6 percent as compared to May 2024. However, year-to-date imports continue higher, up 16.5 percent. Outside of 2022, crab meat imports are topping the highest levels seen in recent years. When looking strictly at pasteurized and fresh crab meat products, through June 2024 it’s the second highest volume of imports on record—again behind 2022.

When looking further at the breakdown of...

The Retail Rundown: Unsettled Start to August

August began with a sharp decline in the global market, triggered by weak U.S. economic data and disappointing labor market figures. Traders are also assessing corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates amid concerns of a U.S. economic slowdown.

ANALYSIS: Rising Sockeye Prices Amid Declining Supply and Smaller Fish

Sockeye pricing continues to increase as supply diminishes. This decrease in supply is driven by lower landings from Alaska and the smaller size of the fish being caught. According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) the average size of the fish is currently 4.2 pounds, marking only the fourth time in the past 20 years that the average size has fallen below 5 pounds. The other instances occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The combination of lower landings and smaller fish is...

The Retail Rundown: Summer and Back-to-School Fuel Deli Demand

As August approaches, consumers are eager to savor the last weeks of the summer season. With Labor Day weekend—the unofficial end of summer—just five weeks away, some retailers have already begun stocking up for the holiday.

In the meantime, back-to-school items, including snacks and sandwich ingredients, are beginning to appear in circulars. The deli counter is currently benefiting from summer activities as day-trippers make meals for picnics and various outings.

Last week, the lunchmeat sector generated nearly $26.8 million in total sales, up...

The Retail Rundown: Competition for Ad Space Intensifies

As the final full week of July comes to a close, the retail sector is promoting at-home eating during the dog days of summer, a time when protein consumption typically drops due to the heat and fewer major retail buying occasions.

Competition for ad space is heating up, with seafood and pork leading the way, each capturing 25.8% of retail buying opportunities this week. Beef follows with 22.4%, unchanged from the previous week. Chicken has increased to 17.7%, up from 16.4% last week. Eggs account for 4.5%, with most feature activity...

ANALYSIS: EU and UK Shrimp Imports Pick Up in Spring 2024

We have recently observed a positive trend in the European shrimp market after a seasonal dip in imports in February and March.

According to the latest data from Global Trade Tracker, EU and UK imports of shrimp from tier regions reached 53,847 MT in May 2024, a 5.5% progression since April, which was 10.6% up since March. All in all, from January to May 2024, EU and UK shrimp imports grew by 4.1% year over year.

However, May volumes are down 3.9% compared with...

ANALYSIS: June U.S. Shrimp Imports Expected to Decline

Expana’s Lead Analyst Angel Rubio forecasts June 2024 shrimp imports to come in at 122 million pounds, which would be a little over 10 percent below the 136.278 million pounds in June 2023.

This would bring the H1 total to 776.1 million pounds, down 2.3 percent from 794.601 million pounds in the first six months of last year.

Importers have been working on leaner inventories as the cost of capital and storage has increased and in country supplies have been good to meet current needs. However, challenges in...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Vie with Foodservice During Peak Travel Season

Summer is usually the peak demand period for foodservice, as warmer weather encourages vacation plans and out-and-about activities. As more consumers embark on trips, spending is typically increased at restaurants and bars.

Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that restaurant business rose 0.3 percent last month, likely supported by the summer travel season. Overall retail sales in June remained unchanged from May, outpacing expectations for a decline. Stock futures climbed following the stronger-than-expected data, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to... 

ANALYSIS: Crab Meat Imports Surge 25.2 Percent Over Last Year

Outside of 2022, crab meat imports are topping the highest levels seen in recent years. Overall, year-to-date, total crab meat imports are 25.2 percent higher. When looking strictly at pasteurized and fresh crab meat products, through May 2024 it’s the second highest volume of imports on record, again behind 2022.

When looking further at the breakdown of crab meat imports, we observe that Indonesia, the leader in the crab meat category, is seeing a 28.7 percent YTD increase while many other countries...

ANALYSIS: Brazil Shifts Lobster Trade Away from the U.S.

Shipments of lobster tails from Brazil to the United States have fallen close to 50 percent in the last two years. Census data reveals that between 2017 and 2021, U.S. importers sourced an average of 3.03 million pounds of lobster per year from Brazil. However, in the last two years (2022 and 2023), that number has fallen to 1.602 million pounds, which represents a 47 percent reduction.

This shift may not be due to any change in the appetite of the U.S. consumer but rather an increase in...

ANALYSIS: Atlantic Halibut Market Experiences Significant Price Volatility in 2024

The Atlantic halibut market continues to experience significant price swings in 2024. At the beginning of the year, prices were well into the $15 range, but they have now dropped to about half that amount. While market volatility is not uncommon, this year is seeing larger-than-usual fluctuations.

The year started with an average price of $15.75 per pound, then dropped sharply by 34.9% to $10.25 per pound by early February. Prices strengthened through Lent but dropped off...