ANALYSIS: Imports and Price Retreat on Squid Market

Year-to-date squid imports into the United States from January through September 2023 were recorded at 90.4 million pounds, registering the lowest YTD levels since the onset of the pandemic. 2020 aside, the 2023 YTD levels are the lowest since 2004 recorded just over 82 million pounds of product for the same timeframe.

Breaking down import volume by country, the only increase across the top squid suppliers into the U.S. is Taiwan, where a 40.4% year-over-year increase was recorded...

The Retail Rundown: 2023 Thanksgiving Outlook

Thanksgiving is just one week out and grocers are bracing for a busy weekend ahead as shoppers secure any remaining needs for the holiday feast. Below, we have the latest outlook on what Turkey Day 2023 may bring.

The Star of the Show 

Shoppers this Thanksgiving may breathe a sigh of relief when looking at prices for the big bird. Last year, households shelled out more money for their turkeys due to factors including highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) complications, low cold storage holdings, and inflation.

A lull in bird flu detections following the initial outbreak...

The Retail Rundown: Tuning in to Holiday Turkey Features

For this week's retail rundown, we're tuning in to holiday turkey features as Thanksgiving inches closer. Grocers are making room for the big bird in their meat cases and freezers for the millions of turkeys that will be gobbled down in two weeks. 

Seafood maintains the top spot among protein ads with 23.8% of features this week. Turkey ads captured nearly 9% of protein features this week, up from 6.9% the previous week. Within the turkey complex, frozen whole turkey features account for 56.5% of features, up from 25% a week...

The Retail Rundown: Roast Features Heat Up as Temperatures Dip

An early-season snowstorm has arrived for portions of the Northwest, bringing accumulations of up to a foot in areas including Mondana and North Dakota. The system is forecast to spread into the North Plains by midweek, according to the National Weather Service.

A cold front will bring frigid temperatures southeastward towards the week's end, with single-digit temperatures possible for some regions. In contrast, much of the central and eastern U.S. is experiencing near or above-average temperatures this week...

ANALYSIS: Robust Chum Landings out of Alaska in 2023 Result in Lower Prices

The chum or keta market this year has seen above average landings for the majority of the season. The year was somewhat atypical as normally two separate surges occur, one in summer and one later in the fall. Instead, there was a single peak this summer in statistical week 30 (July 24-30).  In total, Alaska has landed 22.47 million chum, marking a 58% increase compared to 2022 and a 54% increase compared to the five-year average... 

The Retail Rundown: Keeping a Watchful Eye on Bird Flu

The threat of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has resurfaced, with USDA reporting detections among commercial turkey flocks in South Dakota, Utah, and Minnesota earlier this month and again last week.

The fall migration of wild birds as they head south for winter could bring a new wave of infection, renewing concerns among market participants about the potential supply and trade implications of bird flu. The latest detections were on Friday, October 13, on two WOAH Non-Poultry operations located in North Dakota and Montana along with one commercial turkey...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Try to A-Maize Shoppers this October

October is abuzz with harvest activities and seasonal factors increasingly taking hold, including a transition to cooler weather cooking, particularly as chilly conditions begin to arrive for the West.

However, parts of the country are experiencing unusually warm weather so far this fall, with daily-record high temperatures recorded in areas of South Dakota and Indiana earlier this week.

This has allowed some consumers to extend the outdoor grilling season, considered supportive of meat sales. Moreover, protein consumption is benefitting from several demand drivers this month, including tailgating activities...

ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review September 10-16

With the peak of coho season now behind us, Alaska coho landings for the year so far have reached 2.03 million fish as of week 38 (September 10-16, 2023). This figure represents a 31% increase compared to 1.55 million fish that were landed last year in the same timeframe. However, it falls approximately 24% below the five-year average of 2.69 million fish.

Notably, the Copper River district is experiencing much higher landings compared to the previous year in recent weeks...

The Retail Rundown: Checking on Chicken; Latest Inflation Reading

For more than thirty years, the National Chicken Council (NCC) has partnered with major U.S. chicken producers to promote chicken sales this month—leading to September being crowned as National Chicken Month.   

In what was historically regarded as a slow period for poultry sales following the conclusion of summer grilling, increased in-store promotions and ad campaigns including chicken-centric recipes have helped extend the robust summer consumption season into September since the program's inception in 1989.

The number of chicken items found in advertisements this week based on Urner Barry's... 

ANALYSIS: Assessing Some Shifts in EU Shrimp Demand

There is a slight degree of positivity in the warm-water shrimp market, illustrated last week by the small uptick in the U.S. import figures published last week by the US Census office. After a 12-month decline, U.S. trade in improved by 2.7% since last year for the month of July, at 76,450 metric tons against 74,471 MT last year.

The EU trade figures for July are not available yet, but the CNA statistical office registered a 19.7% increase from Ecuadorian exports to Europe. In H1 2023, Spain...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Shrimp Imports Show First Gain in a Year

In data released Wednesday, and for the first time in over a year, U.S. shrimp imports were marginally higher compared to year-earlier levels. While there has been talk that imports might reverse soon, it may come as a bit of a surprise that they did prior to the fall months as many thought. The 152.902 million pounds edged 2.7 percent above last July’s 148.941 million pounds.

It was really a mixed bag when it comes to gainers and losers from the top trade partners. India (+12.8%)...

ANALYSIS: Haddock Imports Down, Pricing Remains at 52-week Low

Haddock imports remain below the 3-year average throughout all of 2023 through June of this year. All product forms — frozen fillets, frozen whole fish and frozen fillet blocks — have seen decreases in volume. Therefore, almost all countries of origin have seen decreases. China is down 51.7 percent on frozen fillets; Norway down 50.3 percent on frozen fillets and down 44 percent on frozen whole fish; and Iceland is down 36.6 percent on frozen fillets. One area we are seeing increases is in the Faroe Islands...

The Retail Rundown: 2023 Labor Day Feature Rundown

In the final push before Labor Day weekend, grocers are touting grilling items and party staples as consumers celebrate the last big summer occasion of the season.

Pork and seafood features each account for about 26% of total retail buying opportunities this week. Beef closely follows with 25.6% of feature volume while chicken comes in with 18% of ad space. Egg feature volume saw a noticeable slowdown to 0.7% this week, down from 3.2% the week prior and 4.1% two weeks back.

Ribs and bacon account for the bulk of pork's feature...

ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review August 13-19

As the 2023 fresh sockeye season winds down, prices have remained relatively stable, mirroring the patterns observed in previous years at the end of the season. Currently, the average price for 4-6 fresh H&G (headed and gutted) sockeye stands at $4.38 per pound. This price is below both last year’s numbers and the five-year average, showing a decrease of 12.4% and 11.5% respectively.

Another strong year of landings bolstering supply along with a fair to quiet demand saw pricing hit its lowest levels for this...

ANALYSIS: Larger Snow Crab Volumes Light; Retail Remains Active

8-and-10 up snow crab continue to move higher this week while 5-8s remain steady at listed levels. As the fishing season nears its close after multiple extensions in Newfoundland, a theme has held true since the season began—larger crab is tight.

We see evidence of this as 8-up snow crab out of both Newfoundland and the Gulf continue to adjust higher and the price difference between 5-8s and 8-up crab continue to grow. Although not the...

The Retail Rundown: Egg-celerated Features Boost Spending

School is already in session for some students, giving consumers a sense of urgency to embark on one last vacation before August wraps. For the retail grocery sector, the lead-up to September will be used to promote back-to-school shopping along with grilling must-haves for Labor Day weekend. 

Last-minute getaways support foodservice spending as consumers flock to tourist destinations and dine out. For grocers, back-to-school shopping typically drives store traffic as families restock on breakfast, lunch, and snack items. Eggs, a quintessential breakfast staple, have seen...

ANALYSIS: Crab Meat Market Round-up

Pricing in the blue swimming crab meat market in the U.S. has been very steady the last several months. Market participants report inventories are generally in balance with the largest grades, colossal and jumbo lump seeing more barely adequate inventories. Currently, pricing on blue swimming jumbo lump is 27.5 percent higher than last year but is also 27 percent lower than pricing at the same time in 2021.

Overall imports have been lower in total compared to last year, with September imports out, the volume of crab meat is...

Ecuadorian Shrimp Exports Keep Progressing, But At What Price?

The shrimp export figures for the month of September have just been released by CNA this week, and, as we observed as well in the August report, volumes are up year-on-year. However, revenues are declining. Last month, total Ecuadorian exports of farmed white shrimp progressed by 13% worldwide, at 107,343 metric tons, while they dropped by 9% in value, at 547.9 million USD.

This illustrates the situation of the global shrimp market this year, which suffers from a weak undertone and...

ANALYSIS: A Recent Uptick of Argentina Red Shrimp Exports to the EU

In a difficult context for the global seafood market, the main species of warm water shrimp - which include vannamei, black tiger and Argentine red shrimp, have all suffered significantly from a drop in demand this year. With consumers in the US and in Europe purchasing less seafood than last year, and China also reducing imports, market prices touched record-low values, with some categories still reported today at bottom levels.

One species which tends to behave slightly differently...

ANALYSIS: The Live Lobster Market Following Historical Behaviors: A Maine Update

As we move from fall to winter, the well-known patterns of the lobster industry reemerge. With the shift in seasons, the supply of hard-shell lobsters starts to diminish, leading to a tightening. This change in supply dynamics is typically accompanied by a surge in demand, especially for the highly desired large-size selects, in preparation for the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival. While demand escalates in China, domestic buyers often remain relatively reserved until the holiday season approaches...

ANALYSIS: Taking the Temperature of Farmed Salmon Halfway Through October

Its National Seafood Month in the U.S., not typically a month many seafood industry participants have circled on their calendar. From a historical standpoint, it’s a lower demand period for seafood. From a farmed salmon perspective not usually as active as a month.

Most of that scenario appears to be true halfway through October. But what is noteworthy is the volume that continue to come into the U.S. market. Census data was released last week and fresh salmon fillets through August are up almost 12 percent...

The Retail Rundown: Pork and Seafood Share the Spotlight Next Month

Pork and seafood will share the spotlight next month, as October is recognized as both National Pork Month and National Seafood Month. Retailers are expected to increase feature volume for the two proteins in the weeks ahead to promote spending this fall. 

October is reserved for National Pork Month to help move product when hog supplies are large. While a seasonal expansion in supplies typically takes place around this time of year, ongoing liquidation efforts may keep a lid on supplies this fall and winter.

Weekly hog slaughter levels...

The Retail Rundown: Fall-ing into Seasonal Trends

It’s the end of an era…or at least, a season. Pumpkin everything has already been underway for a couple of weeks and the fall equinox officially arrives on Saturday, September 23^rd.

Grocers are increasingly highlighting autumn retail trends consistent with indoor oven cooking, resulting in shifting feature volume from grilling cuts to cooler-weather items like roasts.

Beef roasts have seen a notable uptick in feature volume since the beginning of the month, currently claiming 22% of total beef ads. Comparatively, the roast category accounted for 14% of beef ads...

ANALYSIS: Frozen Mahi – The 2023-2024 Season Outlook

The upcoming Mahi fishing season for 2023-2024 in Central and South America is set to begin, as it traditionally does during the first week of October each year. Leading up to the start of this new season, there's a significant amount of anticipation and speculation among fishermen, processors, importers, and traders involved in the wild fishery. These speculations revolve around factors such as water temperatures, market demand, and the resulting price fluctuations, which are heavily influenced by catch volumes. Moreover, the unpredictability intensifies when... 

ANALYSIS: Fresh Salmon Fillet Imports Up Almost 11 Percent YTD

The fresh farmed salmon fillet market continues to see massive volumes come into the U.S. market. Fresh fillets year-to-date are up almost 11 percent, up 10.9 percent through July 2023. These increases can be attributed to both Chile, the main driver in the category with a 74 percent market share, and a combination of Norway and the Faroe Islands who together hold almost a 20 percent market share. Fresh fillets out of Chile are up 11.8 percent, Norway is up...

The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Shifts in September

From back-to-school shopping to the return of NFL season, September ushers in a flurry of buying occasions for the retail sector as seasonal shifts in consumer buying behaviors begin to take hold. 

Purchases for school lunches, snacks, and extracurricular activities lift sales at the deli counter and prepared and frozen foods sections of the grocery store. Last week, the lunchmeat category earned $95.9 million in total sales, up from $67.4 million the week prior. Roasted turkey continued to drive deli service sales and retailed at $10.64 discounted, up 79 cents from...

ANALYSIS: EU Shrimp Imports from Argentina Down 21% YOY in July

Export numbers of frozen shrimp from Argentina into the EU are now available in Global Trade Tracker for July 2023.

Around 184,700 metric tons of warm water shrimps were imported by the EU in the first half of 2023, and Argentina is the third supplying country, with 8.3% share.

In July alone, 7,646 metric tons of muelleri shrimp were imported into the EU, a 21 percent drop since July 2022 and 30 percent compared to July 2021. However, when looking...

ANALYSIS: Crab Meat: A Few Things to Watch

Through most of 2023, the crab meat market has seen imports well below the 3-year average. But as of June 2023, and somewhat in May of 2023, we are starting to see that trend shift.

With months of an active or high demand for product, it looks as though imports may be starting to catch up as levels start to climb above the 3-year average. Due to the lag time between where blue and red swimming crab meat is caught and...

The Retail Rundown: Looking Towards Labor Day

Labor Day weekend is drawing near and grocers are busy securing orders for the final major retail buying occasion of the summer season. For this week's retail rundown, we'll take a look at wholesale price action and how it may influence holiday promotions at retail.

In the wholesale beef market, Urner Barry's Choice beef cutout has advanced by nearly 4% so far in August following a correction from seasonal all-time highs in mid-June and throughout July. The Choice cutout is currently down about 6.5% from its summer peak but is nearly 16%...

ANALYSIS: Uncertainties Within The Scallop Market

The 2023-2024 Atlantic sea scallop season had pressures mounting even before the fishery opened on April 1. With another consecutive year of fallen quota announcements, the estimated 25 million pounds of scallops landed in 2023 is a 26.5 percent retreat from the 2022 projection of 34 million pounds and a notable 60 percent drop from the 2019 projection of 62.5 million pounds just four years prior.

With the anticipated fall in seasonal landings, firm prices and premiums throughout the season were expected. However, a pullback on demand, as seen across seafood...