This Week in Retail: Beef Ads Lag Leading Up to Memorial Day

The Memorial Day holiday is just one weekend away and grocers are gearing up for the unofficial start to the summer grilling season.

This major retail occasion typically drives sales from the meat case, with items like burgers and hot dogs stealing the spotlight.

Beef features account for 28% of total protein ad volume this week, up slightly from the previous week. Pork and seafood are tied for second with 25%. Chicken claims 16%, even with the week prior. 

While beef holds the top spot in retail buying opportunities, market participants have reported lackluster beef features for this time of year. May is typically the strongest period of the year for beef demand...

While beef holds the top spot in buying opportunities, market participants have noted lackluster beef features for this time of year. May is typically the strongest period of the year for beef demand...

ANALYSIS: 2022 Q1 Pangasius Volume Outweighs Tilapia Second Year as Record Prices Retreat

The first quarter for 2022 has once again reported higher import volumes of pangasius frozen fillets compared to tilapia frozen fillets. Historically, tilapia largely outweighs pangasius volume, however, 2021 monthly import data saw that trend reversal for six out of the twelve months last year, where pangasius brought in higher volumes.

As supply improves and backorders are caught up on, pricing on pangasius out of Vietnam has allowed for discounts. As previously reported by industry players, demand...

This Week in Retail: Protein Features Spring to Life in May

May has finally arrived, sparking spring fever among consumers and retailers alike. With warmer weather beginning to arrive for parts of the country, retailers will increasingly showcase grilling campaigns for the upcoming summer season. 

The month of May hosts several retail occasions that typically heighten store traffic and sales. Baseball season is underway, leading to increased consumption both inside and outside the stadium of hot dogs, burgers, beers, and more.

The National Hog Dog and Sausage Council (NHDSC) estimates that MLB fans will consume 19.1 million hot dogs and nearly five million sausages at games this season. Fans are returning to stadiums at maximum capacity this season for the first time since 2019...

This Week in Retail: The Lull Before Grilling Season

The next few weeks following Easter are generally uneventful for retailers. With below-normal temperatures lingering in parts of the country, grocers are anxiously awaiting the confluence of seasonal factors that typically boost protein sales during the summertime. 

At present, grocers are securing holiday-oriented needs for May. The peak demand period for meat typically follows Memorial Day—the unofficial start of the summer season.

Leading up to Memorial Day, grocers will utilize springtime activities including baseball season and Cinco de Mayo to help fill the pauses in retail occasions.

Store circular ads will begin to display the change in season as front-page features for cold-weather items like roasts are replaced with steaks, ribs, and other grilling-centric cuts...

ANALYSIS: February Shrimp Imports Continue to Surge

Shrimp imports were released today, and it really comes as no surprise anymore that the data shows large increases from the prior year. February 2022 imports surged 25.3 percent above last year to 145.705 million pounds. This was a February record and was even 8.7 percent above the next highest February on record in 2004.

The top five trade partners all paced the gains with double digit growth, with some outsized advances seen. India (+14.7%), Ecuador (+44.3%), Indonesia (+45.4%), Vietnam...

This Week in Retail: Looking Towards April

Heading into April, the prospect of warmer weather encourages grocers to revamp their ads to align with seasonal trends. Increased demand for grilling items, especially for premium beef cuts, typically supports sales at the meat case.

Furthermore, the warming trend often translates to increased foodservice demand as more consumers venture out to restaurants. 

Wholesale prices for cuts like strip steaks, porterhouse, and T-bones normally begin to increase sometime in April and peak in the summer months. 

This week in retail, steaks including top round, top sirloin, and T-bone all show a rise in price versus a year ago. The steak complex currently averages 32% higher YoY. Features for 80% ground beef average $3.47 per pound, up from $2.88 per pound last year. Average roast prices are up 42 cents per pound...

ANALYSIS: Is Ecuador Returning to China as Shrimp Prices Stagnant to Start 2022 in U.S.?

Ecuador shrimp exports to the United States in 2021 smashed the short lived record from the year prior. The 405.3 million pounds was 46.1 percent higher than 277.4 million pounds in 2020, which was significantly higher than the last high in 2014 of 203.5 million pounds. This represented nearly 22 percent of all shrimp exports from Ecuador.

China remained the number one trade partner with Ecuador, but the share moved lower to just over 46 percent last year. Market factors such as COVID-19 shutdowns...

ANALYSIS: Sanctions and Tariffs Shift Focus to Icelandic Cod

The announcement from President Biden banning imports of seafood from Russia during the Lenten season, historically a period of the highest demand for seafood within the U.S., has resulted in mounting uncertainty, new obstacles to circumvent, and a shift in demand within the cod markets.

Pricing on single frozen cod from Iceland began demanding premiums at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, only to be fueled once the executive order was announced on March 11, 2022. Previously ordered product will have...

This Week in Retail: Showcasing Brisket Features for St. Patrick’s Day

Today is St. Patrick’s Day and grocers are lining their shelves with Irish staples including corned beef brisket, Irish soda bread, and beer.

The National Retail Federation reports that over half of Americans plan to celebrate St. Patrick's Day this year, providing a boost for retail sales as consumers stock up on green apparel, food, and beverages. The NRF's survey found that 34% of celebrants will make a special dinner while 19% plan on attending a party at a bar or restaurant.

Roast feature activity accounts for 45% of all beef ads this week. Of that, briskets claim 42% of total roast features. Features for corned beef brisket this week range from $4.28 per pound to $5.93 per pound, depending on the store and region. Brisket feature prices currently average $4.49 per pound, up 22% from a year ago...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Salmon Market Sees Increased Supplies In Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

At the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine it was unclear how the farmed salmon complex would respond. Now, two weeks into the conflict, we observe that the U.S. salmon market has seen increased supplies from all of the European salmon producers. Over the past two weeks the Norwegian whole fish market has moved lower, down 11 percent on 6-7s Norwegian whole into the U.S. market.

The increased supplies out of Europe have in turn made...

ANALYSIS: Uncertainty and Pressure Mount for Alaska Pollock

While the pollock industry closely monitors the Russian invasion of Ukraine, impacts of the war continue to mount for the pollock market. Unrelenting upwards pressure from supply constraints being carried over from seasons past, as well as a reduced quota for the new 2022 season while demand remains unphased by the premiums seen within the current market, is the baseline undertone before throwing in war-related obstacles.

Canceled carriers and cargo insurance, increased sanctions, restricted banking systems, consumer opposition to Russian product, as well as transit interruptions along the various stages of...

This Week in Retail: Global Uncertainty and the Food Supply Chain

Headlines are currently dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which entered its eighth day today. The Russia-Ukraine war has forced a mass exodus of Ukrainians and upended the global marketplace as market participants brace for potential consequences for consumers, both domestically and abroad.

Russia and Ukraine produce and export an abundance of natural resources including crude oil, metals, and wheat. The Russian assault on Ukraine could have long-term ramifications for the global economy, which is already strained by the ongoing pandemic and enduring supply chain disruptions.

For the United States, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could intensify inflationary pressures and further increase costs for commodities including fuel and food. 

Amidst the volatility currently engulfing the global landscape, grocers are also monitoring a shift in the retail food landscape. March 2^nd signified the start of the Christian Lenten season, which typically slows meat sales as Lent observers switch to other proteins including fish.

Seafood feature volume increased to 36% this week, from 28% the week prior. Currently, most seafood features stem from fresh/frozen fillets. The complex—which includes catfish, cod, and tilapia—averages $7.43 per pound this week, up nearly 41.5% from a year ago. 

This Week in Retail: A Look at Protein Indices So Far in 2022

A common thread currently uniting the retail landscape for most proteins is inflationary pressure prompted in part by strong demand, persistent snags in the supply chain, tight supplies, and increased production costs. At present, Urner Barry’s beef, pork, and chicken retail feature indices are positioned at seasonal all-time highs.

Kicking off 2022, Urner Barry’s Weekly Retail Feature Beef Index displayed a contra-seasonal price movement relative to historical norms. The index normally sees a decline from early to mid-January. However, the beef index this year increased by 4.5% from January 3 through January 17 to $6.92 per pound, an all-time high for that week in history. The weekly index has been well above the 5-year average so far this year...

This Week in Retail: Super Bowl Sales Wrap Up; Latest CPI Data 

The Super Bowl is within arm’s reach and grocers this week are promoting party-centric items including finger foods, frozen pizzas, and beverages. An estimated 184.5 million U.S. adults plan to cheer on the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams this Sunday evening, according to a National Retail Federation survey.

Seafood and beef each secured nearly 33% of promotional activity this week, according to the Urner Barry retail survey. Chicken climbed to 11.4%, up from 9.2% last week. Pork cuts were about even with recent weeks and had a 19% share of retail buying opportunities. 

The National Retail Federation reports that a combined 35% of football fans are planning on either throwing a party or attending a party for the big game this year. In the latest 15 years, 67% to 82% of total spending for the Super Bowl has been allocated towards food and beverages, according to NRF data. Chicken is likely to be a highly sought-after item in the meat case and grocers are anticipating an influx of spending on both fresh and frozen wings...

ANALYSIS: December 2021 Shrimp Imports Close Out Record Setting Year

The last data set of the year was released yesterday, and shrimp imports in 2021 ended with a bang just like the rest of the year. Imports for December were a record-setting 194.1 million pounds, or 32.7 percent above last year in the same month. As a result, total annual imports were 19.8 percent higher at 1.970 billion pounds; another historical high and just shy of two billion pounds.

The U.S. top five trade partners remained the same. The top four all shipped significantly more than...

This Week in Retail: February Lull Lifted by Game Day Food Purchases

Among retailers, February is normally a sluggish period for protein sales since wintry weather foils efforts to grill outdoors (except for the select few devoted fans, that is). A disruptive winter storm is currently blasting through the central, northeastern, and southern U.S. following a Nor’easter that hammered the East Coast last weekend.

Along with the weather, other factors that typically contribute to sluggish meat sales this month include tighter budgets following holiday shopping in December along with the absence of major holidays.

Grocers are looking for ways to increase store traffic this month by featuring attractive prices, when possible, on cuts of meats commonly used by families to stretch their food dollars. This includes pork butt and beef shoulder, which are great for slow-cooking and can be used in leftovers. Moreover, the upcoming Super Bowl presents an opportunity for grocers to drum up additional interest in the meat case. The Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals will battle for the coveted Lombardi Trophy next weekend...

ANALYSIS: March Shrimp Imports Continue Record Surge

Shrimp imports were released yesterday, and to no one's surprise the record setting surge continued. March shrimp imports registered at 168.474 million pounds, or 22 percent above last year. In a recurring theme, this was the largest March total in history. March 2021 saw 138.105 million pounds sent to the United States.

The top five trade partners once again sent significantly more shrimp to the U.S. than last year, but many other countries followed suit as well. With other markets challenged by a variety of factors...

This Week in Retail: Roast Features Make Room for Grilling Ads

Although some portions of the country are still experiencing cool weather and even snow, various grilling cuts are beginning to surface in circulars as consumers dust off their grills—despite being a month away from the unofficial Memorial Day kickstart to summer.

For grocers, the seasonal uptick in demand typically boosts sales for items like loins, butts, and ribs over the next few weeks as warmer weather drives increased outdoor activity.

In the meantime, retailers are preparing for the next retail occasion—Cinco de Mayo. The approaching celebration could increase store traffic as shoppers stock up on pork, beef, and chicken for tacos, burritos, enchiladas, and beyond...

This Week in Retail: A Look at Easter Features; CPI Data Released

This week in retail, the discussion is heavily centered on the economy, rising inflation with the latest CPI growth, and the bird flu outbreak in the U.S. Meanwhile, Easter week has arrived and grocers are looking to capture additional spending on the holiday.

USDA estimates that nearly 24 million poultry birds have died from high-path avian influenza since the virus strain was identified in February. The virus has since spread in wild birds to 32 states.

Another outbreak was confirmed Tuesday afternoon in a flock of roughly 2 million commercial layers in Nebraska, lifting the total number of commercial laying hens affected by HPAI to about 20 million head. 

Urner Barry's Midwest large benchmark quotation is currently at $2.84/dozen, down from $3.01/dozen the week prior but a staggering 176% above a year ago. At retail, large eggs on feature for the holiday week are highlighted at nearly $3/dozen while X-large averages $2.86/dozen...

ANALYSIS: 2022 Scallop Season Expectations

April 1, 2022 marks the opening of the 2022/2023 Atlantic sea scallop fishery that operates along the Atlantic coast from the Mid-Atlantic region, up to the U.S.-Canadian border. Framework Adjustment 34, which namely projects 34 million pounds of Atlantic sea scallops to be landed this season, was approved by New England Fishery Management Council back in December, and passed along to NOAA for final approval and implementation. On March 30, 2022 NOAA published the final rule to the Federal Register, taking effect on...

ANALYSIS: Conflicting Trends on Imported Catfish

After a steep incline in wholesale prices on Chinese catfish frozen fillets beginning in the first quarter of 2021, the market finally came off for the first time in a year. Since March 2021 Chinese catfish increased $2.00/pound, leading to pushback from consumers, a drop in demand, and ultimately sellers discounting product to entice sales.

Additional factors contributing to the market softening include supply and the wind down of the Lenten season. Compared to a few months ago, inventories are in better...

This Week in Retail: Steak Features See Boost from Warmer Weather; Eyeing HPAI

Sunday marked the official start of spring. For retailers, that means grilling season is rapidly approaching, and with it—the opportunity for increased meat sales.

Steak features surged this week, accounting for 50.5 percent of total beef ads—up 16 percentage points from the week prior. Feature volume for roasts, meanwhile, has decreased, falling from 38.2 percent last week to 23.2 percent this week.

This week in retail, the steak complex averages $8.12 per pound, up 12.8 percent from a year ago. Boneless strip steaks are widely featured at grocery outlets across the nation and average $11.68 per pound, up 36 percent from a year ago. Top sirloin steaks are up 3.3 percent YoY at $5.64 per pound while bottom round steaks clock in at $5.54 per pound, up a whopping 68.4 percent from this week last year...

ANALYSIS: A Look At The Current Snow Crab Market And Spring Supply Outlook

More questions than answers…  

With the new Canadian snow crab seasons fresh on everyone’s minds, there is a lot to unpack on what is happening in the market currently and what the supply outlook looks like for Spring 2022. Let’s start with some things that we know.   

March 15 marked the beginning of the season in Nova Scotia. Boats have just begun unloading, therefore we will have a better idea of how the fishery is doing into next week. The quota for Nova Scotia has...

ANALYSIS: January Shrimp Imports Show More of the Same

The first set of shrimp imports for 2022 were released today and showed no sign of slowing down the strengthening trend seen last year or the record monthly pace seen during that time. The 172.746 million pounds imported was a January record and 12.8 percent above the start of 2021.

The U.S. top five trade partners set the pace for the gains. India (+7.5%), Indonesia (+9.0%), Ecuador (+57.0%), Vietnam (+5.0%), and Thailand (+7.6%) all shipped more. Despite the large move...

This Week in Retail: Grocers Spring Forward; Latest CPI Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.9% in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—the largest 12-month increase since 1982. The data was in line with analysts' expectations, heightening inflation fears in the markets.

The food index was up 1% as food at home gained 1.4% over the month. Both were the largest monthly increases since April 2020, according to the BLS. 

All six major grocery store food group indexes increased in February. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.2%. 

The index for food at home has risen 8.6% in the last 12 months, the largest annual increase since April 1981. The index for food away from home increased 6.8%, the largest 12-month increase in over four decades. 

As the conflict in Ukraine continues, market participants are closely eyeing the risks associated with worsening inflation. The ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine war could raise consumer prices even further as grocers prepare for the transition to Spring, which is less than two weeks away...

ANALYSIS: Lower Price Movement Seen Across Canadian and Russian Snow Crab

The Canadian and Russian snow crab markets continue to adjust lower this week. All currently quoted sizes, 5-8s and 8-ups, have seen the downward price movement since the beginning of 2022. 5-8s out of the Gulf have adjusted down 4.6 percent since the beginning of the year, while 8-ups out of the Gulf have weakened 7.5 percent since January 2022. Therefore, the spread that we have seen between 5-8s and 8-ups has narrowed...

This Week in Retail: Farewell February; What's Next?

Wrapping up the final full week of February, wintry weather is in full force as back-to-back storms rip through the Eastern two-thirds of the country. Amidst the havoc, retailers are eagerly looking towards spring demand, which is boosted by seasonal influences including more favorable grilling conditions and holidays like Easter.

Retail protein sales are typically sluggish in February, leaving much to be desired among grocers. However, consumer retail demand for meat has remained strong so far this year despite a normal seasonal lull and higher prices for most items. In the near term, grocers will begin to shift their retail features from red meat and poultry towards seafood as Lenten observers begin a 40-day period of fasting and reduced meat consumption starting on March 2^nd.

The seafood complex accounts for 27% of total protein features this week. Beef makes up 26.5% of feature volume, while pork closes in on 21%. Chicken claims almost 13% of ad space, followed by eggs...

ANALYSIS: Snow Crab Market Quiet; Buying Opportunities Down and Retail Price Up

The snow crab market out of Canada, similar to other crab species, looks to have downward pricing pressure on both 5-8s and 8-ups. Lower offers have been collected and the market has been trending lower over the past few weeks. Market participants report that buyer needs currently appear to be fulfilled. Demand further along the distribution chain has slowed the past several weeks.  

Minus the week of January 22, where we did see retail promotions or buying opportunities surpass last year’s...

ANALYSIS: Expect to Pay Up For Seafood This Valentine’s Day

If you are treating your special someone to a lobster dinner this Valentine’s Day, brace yourself when the check arrives. Historically, the period following Chinese New Year and before the start of the Canadian spring season in Q2 is when net supply and inventory shortages are the most pronounced. Urner Barry market reporter Liz Cuozzo reports that this certainly has been the case this year. According to Cuozzo, winter weather has been an ongoing problem during the fall and winter fishing seasons, often limiting fishermen’s days at sea...

ANALYSIS: Blue Swimming Crab Market Adjusts to Less Demand, Higher Imports

Similar to other crab markets blue swimming crab meat adjusted lower on some grades throughout the week to begin February 2022. Demand in the U.S. has been lackluster for crab meat at both foodservice and retail; paired with higher imports, in comparison to the 3-year average, throughout the past 7 months. Prior to this scenario, however, imports of crab meat had been trending well below the 3-year average for the first half of 2021 and almost all of 2020. Therefore, many importers reported that...