ANALYSIS: Seasonal Growth in Chilean Salmon Supply Meets Depressed Global Salmon Market

Chilean salmon production continues to display higher monthly levels of harvest compared to 2024, but lower than in 2023, according to the Undersecretariat for Fisheries and Aquaculture (SUBPESCA). The accumulated harvest up to May reached 281,338 metric tons (mt), representing a 7.4% year-to-date (YTD) increase (Figure 1). Additionally, the harvest volume has been increasing in line with the seasonal rise in harvests. In May, the harvest volume grew by 6.3% month-on-month (m-o-m). Typically, the Chilean Atlantic salmon industry reaches its...

The Retail Rundown: Retailers Push Value to Maintain Protein Momentum

Retail meat clearance over the Independence Day holiday was generally strong, with consumers stocking up on grilling staples for the summer’s flagship cookout occasion.

With few major buying events remaining this summer, grocers will likely push aggressive features and highlight value finds to sustain shopper engagement through the dog days of summer.

Post-holiday protein advertisements show seafood maintaining the lead at 33.1% of retail features, followed by beef at 25.1% and pork at 21.5%. Chicken accounted for 16.2%, while turkey fell to just 2%—half of the previous week's...

ANALYSIS: Scottish Atlantic Salmon Exhibits Market Share Growth in Some Key European Markets

The Salmon Scotland Organization announced a new UK–EU trade deal that will reduce post-Brexit difficulties and delays, which have cost exporters an estimated £3 million annually. France remains the top market, receiving 500 lorryloads of Scottish salmon weekly. According to the Salmon Scotland Organization, the sector supports 12,500 jobs and contributes £760 million to the UK economy. The Scottish sector is optimistic that this new trade agreement will reduce the time of delivery by removing physical checks. In addition, the...

ANALYSIS: India’s Shrimp Exports Continue Upward Trend Despite Market Shifts

According to the latest data from India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, shrimp exports from India have continued their year-over-year growth for the fifth consecutive year, based on figures from January to April. Export volumes reached 224,723 metric tons during this period — an increase of 7.8% compared to the same timeframe in 2024.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, India’s shrimp exports have shown a consistent upward trend. In 2021, export volumes surged by 25.1% as global markets rebounded...

The Retail Rundown: Independence Day Deals in Focus

As the Fourth of July holiday draws closer, competition for front-page ad space among proteins is heating up. Seafood is currently leading with a 29% share, followed by beef and pork, each capturing 24%. Chicken accounts for 18%, while turkey trails at 2.6%.

Burgers and hot dogs remain backyard barbecue mainstays. Several national grocers were promoting 78–84% lean ground beef under $5 per pound, with eye-catching specials as low as $2.27 on a discounted basis.

Over Father's Day weekend...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Father’s Day Protein Promotions; CPI Shows Mild Increase

For Father’s Day weekend, seafood leads retail protein promotions, accounting for 28% of total ad volume. Beef follows at 24.8%, with pork close behind at 23.6%. Chicken claims 19% of protein ads, while turkey makes up about 3%.

Egg features remain limited for now but are on track to gain ground next week amid improving retail demand. While egg consumption typically slows around this time of year due to reduced baking and fewer hot breakfasts, eggs are emerging as one of the few proteins seeing price relief at retail—standing out amid peak seasonal...

ANALYSIS: Ecuadorian Government Ends Diesel Subsidies for Fishing Fleet and Current Tuna Market Trends

A statement published by The National Chamber of Fisheries (CNP) and the Ecuadorian Tuna Association (ATUNEC) on June 2 had expressed concern over the government’s plan to eliminate the diesel subsidy for the tuna sector. Both organizations explain that this will raise operational costs, reduce international competitiveness, and harm a key national industry. According to this document - which states that the Ecuadorian tuna fleet uses only 2.8% of Ecuador’s diesel - the subsidy’s removal would save $14.4 million annually. The statement reads in part, “...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Shrimp Import April 2025 Market Review

Executive Summary

Expana's April shrimp import analysis shows strong volume growth alongside rising prices, creating a situation that looks eerily similar to 2022 when the market faced oversupply issues. Import volumes are up significantly, but demand absorption appears limited, pointing to potential margin pressure ahead as importers rush to beat the July tariff deadline.

In this report:

            1. FORECAST PERFORMANCE VS. ACTUAL FIGURES
            2. IMPORT BREAKDOWN BY PRODUCT FORM
            3. SUPPLIER COUNTRY DYNAMICS
            4. PEELED PRODUCT SPOTLIGHT
            5. HELL-ON MARKET SURGE
            6. COOKED SHRIMP MOMENTUM
            7. MARGIN AND...

The Retail Rundown: Pork Deals Deliver Summer Savings

Pork promotions are gaining momentum, with value-priced cuts standing out against higher-priced beef and even some chicken items.

Bacon continues to steal the spotlight in the pork category, fueled by strong seasonal demand as consumers stock up on this summer staple. Over Memorial Day, discounted bacon averaged $6.30 per pound, up nearly 3% from last year. Wholesale belly prices have climbed 13% since early April, supported by tightening hog supplies and historically low cold storage stocks.

As grilling season gains momentum, demand for ribs...

ANALYSIS: Pacific Halibut Market Update: Quota Cuts, Tight Supply, and Record Prices

The 2025 Pacific halibut fishery, which opened on March 20th, is off to a challenging start amid a mix of regulatory pressure and unfavorable early season weather. Disruptions to fishing efforts across key areas have led to a sharp decline in landings, with year-to-date totals through Week 18 (May 4th) down 28.55% from the same time last year and 25.63% below the five-year average. According to Alaska-based industry sources, the Southeast region is running ahead of schedule, while the Gulf of Alaska lags...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Memorial Day Retail Ads; Weather Poses Challenges

Seafood leads retail protein promotions heading into Memorial Day weekend, accounting for 28.7% of total featured protein ad volume. Pork follows at 25.9%, with beef at 21.3% and chicken at 19.3%.

Egg feature volume is virtually absent amid sluggish retail demand. Warmer weather is prompting a shift toward fruit and cereal for breakfast, while elevated, though easing, shelf prices continue to dampen consumer interest, according to Expana.

Within the seafood category, fresh and frozen fillets represent the largest share of advertised items at nearly 28%. Raw shrimp...

The Retail Rundown: Pre-Grilling Season Retail Insights

With Memorial Day fast approaching, retailers are ramping up promotions to jumpstart the unofficial kickoff to the summer grilling season—a crucial window for driving foot traffic and boosting meat department sales.

The next two weeks are key, as market participants closely watch consumer demand ahead of what is typically one of the busiest periods for beef sales. Protein items are being prominently showcased alongside vibrant seasonal produce, enhancing the appeal of in-store displays.

Seafood leads the protein feature mix this week, accounting for nearly 30% of all advertised protein items...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Turn Up the Heat 

Grocers are turning up the heat in this week’s circulars, leaning into classic summer grilling staples—ribs, burgers, and barbecue fixings—signaling early excitement for the season even with Memorial Day still a few weeks away.

Seafood tops this week’s retail protein promotions, claiming roughly 28% of total ad space. Beef follows with 24.7%, trailed by pork at 23.1% and chicken at 20.2%. Turkey ads were slashed by half compared to last week, now accounting for just 3% of circular space.

Retailers are also highlighting festive favorites ahead of Cinco de Mayo. Ground beef in the 78–84% lean range averaged $4.89 per...

The Retail Rundown: Protein Adds to Holiday Price Gains

Easter week has arrived and grocers are tapping into the holiday's spending momentum. But for consumers, Easter dinner is shaping up to be pricier than last year, with many holiday staples seeing year-over-year price increases.

According to Expana’s latest US Easter Index—which tracks price changes in key holiday-related commodities—overall prices rose 11.8% year-over-year, driven largely by higher costs in the protein and bakery categories.

Expana’s Easter Protein Index, which covers lamb, beef, pork, salmon, cod, and eggs...

The Retail Rundown: Spring Sizzle Fuels Protein Demand

Spring promotions are in full bloom at retail, with holiday-themed ads ramping up. Circulars showcase produce and snacking items alongside grilling staples, aiming to entice shoppers with vibrant displays and seasonal appeal. Beyond holiday preparations, schools and universities are approaching spring break season, likely driving an uptick in foodservice in the coming weeks. 

In some regions, grocers are leveraging hams as loss leaders ahead of Easter. Last week, discounted bone-in ham averaged $2.56 per pound, while spiral-sliced varieties stood at $2.61 per pound—steady to lower than last year’s levels...

The Retail Rundown: Fresh Buying Opportunities in Bloom

Tomorrow marks the official start of spring, and retailers are seizing fresh opportunities to capture increased spending with occassions like Easter and peak grilling season soon approaching.

However, for some residents, spring still feels distant as a late-season storm sweeps through the Central US today and tomorrow, potentially impacting purchasing and consumption patterns in affected regions. 

With roughly a month remaining in Lent, seafood remains a focal point in retail promotions, accounting for 33% of protein advertisements, primarily driven by fresh/frozen fillets as well...

ANALYSIS: Front-Loading Frenzy; May Shrimp Imports Increase 14.6% YTD on Tariff Deadline

Executive Summary

May shrimp import data reveals continued strong volume growth accompanied by rising replacement costs, creating a challenging market dynamic. While imports exceeded expectations across most categories, the combination of higher volumes, elevated costs, and front-loading ahead of tariff implementation, suggests significant inventory accumulation. The market faces a fundamental paradox: imports and costs are both rising, yet U.S. demand remains tepid, pointing to inevitable margin compression as the industry struggles to absorb higher costs across the supply chain without proportional demand...

ANALYSIS: Fresh Chilean Salmon Fillets Soften Ahead of Seasonal Trend

The market for fresh Chilean salmon fillets continues to show signs of weakness, trending lower earlier than usual for this time of year. Historically, pricing begins to soften after Mother’s Day, but this year the decline began in early May. Since the end of April, the price for 3–4-pound fresh Chilean fillets—considered the bellwether size—has fallen 19.2%. This marks a notable departure from the 3-year average, with current prices down 5.1% compared to historical trends.

Despite a nine-week slide, the market has...

ANALYSIS: Thai Tuna Exports by Country and the Factors Influencing Prices

The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Thai skipjack tuna saw a decline of around $150 per metric ton (mt) in May, accounting for a decrease of 8.8% month-on-month. The whole frozen skipjack tuna market saw a notable drop in May as canning factories reduced their purchasing activities due to uncertainties surrounding potential tariffs on tuna exports to the US. In addition to enhanced landing levels in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, these have contributed to overall downward price pressure.

Recent shifts in...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Set Stage for Final Summer Push

With Father’s Day in the rearview, grocers are setting the stage for the final big buying event of the summer: the Fourth of July.

The upcoming holiday marks the last major retail push before Labor Day and serves as a key buying window for proteins like beef ahead of the mid-summer lull. To keep product moving, grocers are expected to lean heavily on promotions and feature aggressive pricing in the coming weeks.

Post-Father’s Day, pork and chicken are poised to capture more...

ANALYSIS: Spanish Octopus Market Strains Under Supply Pressure

Octopus, particularly product imported into the U.S. from Spain, remains a highly challenging category. Reduced catch levels have driven up replacement costs overseas, resulting in elevated and volatile pricing. Some market participants have opted to step back from the category altogether, while others are operating with extremely tight margins. At the same time, continued resistance to higher prices from end users has decreased demand in some instances and contributed to an unsettled market tone.

U.S. Census import data for the year-to-date period (January–April) shows that January was the...

ANALYSIS: Chilean Fresh Salmon Fillet Market Declines for Fifth Consecutive Week

The fresh Chilean salmon fillet market continued its downward trend this week, marking the fifth consecutive week of falling prices. Market participants report weak demand and an ample supply of fresh fillets from Chile as key drivers behind the price slump.

Earlier this spring, European fresh fillets—typically priced higher than Chilean fillets—briefly traded below the Chilean market. However, that trend has reversed. As of this writing, European fresh fillet prices have rebounded and are now 10.3% higher than their...

ANALYSIS: Price Trends and Production Data for Norwegian Atlantic Salmon

According to the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries, Norwegian Atlantic salmon harvest volume increased by 33.4% year over year (y-o-y) in April, leading to a softer market. Although there was some recovery in price in the first two weeks of May, primarily due to microalgae blooms from the genus Phaeocystis and Chrysochromulina, the abundant supply continues to exert downward pressure on prices.

ne of the main reasons for this incredible increase in supply is addressing challenges in salmon farming. Last year’s winter ulcer...

ANALYSIS: Mixed Performance Among Key Exporters of Pandalus Borealis in Q1

In the first quarter, global exports of Pandalus Borealis shrimp from Denmark, Canada, and Norway decreased by 8.2% year-over-year in volume and by 18.9% in value. This represents a total of 25,667 metric tons of cold-water shrimp exported between January and March (HS codes 030616 and 030635), generating approximately USD 116.0 million in revenue. When measured in euros, the year-over-year change in value was -16.2%, reflecting the weaker U.S. dollar since February.

Export performance varied across the three main...

The Retail Rundown: Father’s Day Fires Up Demand for Premium Cuts

Meat sales over Memorial Day weekend appeared to underperform in some regions this year, as cool weather across the Midwest curbed outdoor grilling activity.

Retailers are now setting their sights on the next major grilling event, Father’s Day, paired with hopes for improved weather. Falling on June 15th this year, the event presents another opportunity to drive protein consumption. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities are led by seafood, which accounts for 28.2% of protein ads. Beef has 26.4%, trailed by pork at 23.2%, chicken at 18%, and turkey with...

ANALYSIS: Argentine Red Shrimp Supply Disruptions Expected Amid Mild Q1 Export Decline

According to official census data, Argentine shrimp exports experienced a slight decline in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. Total export volumes fell from 38,147 metric tons (MT) in Q1 2024 to 36,544 MT in Q1 2025. However, it is important to note that export figures for Russia have not been reported this year, which may result in...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Take on Foodservice for a Slice of Mother’s Day Spending

Grocers are gearing up to win a slice of Mother’s Day sales, which are traditionally dominated by restaurants and dining out. While foodservice still captures the lion’s share of spending, supermarkets are making strategic plays to compete for consumers' dollars.

According to the National Retail Federation, Mother’s Day spending is projected to hit $34.1 billion this year—up from $33.5 billion in 2024 and just shy of the 2023 record of $35.7 billion. About 84% of US adults are expected to celebrate, spending an average of $259.04 on gifts and festivities...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Easter Pause Sets Stage for Protein Push

With Easter now in the rearview, retailers will largely tread water, positioning themselves for a seasonal surge in demand ahead of the start of summer.

Grilling demand is beginning to build toward a Memorial Day crescendo, prompting grocers to build inventory and plan aggressive promotions to jumpstart the season. 

But first up is Cinco de Mayo. While it's a smaller holiday, it can still drive foot traffic. Proteins like pork, steak, and chicken are expected to see solid movement as shoppers make tacos, burritos, enchiladas, and other festive fare...

The Retail Rundown: Easter Momentum Builds

In the final full week of Lent, seafood accounts for 35% of all protein retail promotions, gaining ground on pork, which holds 23% of ad space. Beef promotions slipped to 20%, while chicken has 15%. Lamb and veal promotions, though still minimal, doubled from the previous week, rising to 2% ahead of Easter.

Notably, Easter falls late this year—on April 20—affecting year-over-year (YOY) comparisons. Ham promotions last week were offered at premium price points compared to 2024. Discounted boneless smoked hams averaged...

The Retail Rundown: 20th Power of Meat Report Reveals Record-Breaking Meat Sales

The 2025 Power of Meat Study was unveiled this week at the Annual Meat Conference in Orlando, Florida, where Anne-Marie Roerink, Principal at 210 Analytics, shared key insights into shoppers' evolving meat and poultry purchasing habits. Here are some key takeaways from the study's 20th edition: 

Meat sales reach new heights 

This year’s report, released by the Meat Institute and The Food Industry Association (FMI), revealed that the meat department set a new sales record in 2024, reaching $105 billion in total...