Peru Scientist says Strength of This Year's El Nino Still Very Hard to Forecast
SEAFOODNEWS.COM John Sackton - August 31, 2015
A recent NOAA blog post by Peruvian scientist Ken Takahashi suggests that despite record global temperatures this year, and a developing El Nino, the conditions that caused super El Nino's in 1982-3 and 1997-98 may not be developing this year. Takahashi currently leads the national scientific committee ENFEN, which issues the official El Niño forecasts in Peru.
The most extreme El Niño events, in terms of the surface warming in the eastern and central Pacific, occurred during 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. During these two events, Piura, a city in the coastal desert in northern Peru, experienced annual rainfall amounts equivalent to the other 40 rainiest years combined! The economic loss due to extreme weather in Peru during those events is estimated as 7% and 4.5% of its GDP, respectively, said Ken Takahashi, a research scientist in Peru.
During the two super El Nino's, the warming in the Eastern Pacific was much stronger than the warming in the Central Pacific. In a typical El Nino event, the warmth of the Central Pacific moves Eastward; but in a super El Nino, the warmth in the East is somehow amplified....
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